IS THE NFL IN SERIOUS TROUBLE?
Tom Brady who most people consider to be the greatest Quarterback of all time said that he sees a "lot of mediocrity in today's NFL". You have NFL analysts complaining about the lack of scoring over the past couple of seasons. The rules of the game were changed to protect Quarterbacks and encourage more passing. Which they believed would lead to more scoring. Those changes worked as the average percentage of pass plays rose from 55% in the 90s and early 2000s to 61% today.
SO WHY AREN'T WE SEEING MORE SCORING
There are three main reasons contributing to the lack of scoring or "mediocre play" as Tom Brady put it. Ironically they all involve the Quarterback position. The position that was supposed to be easier due to the rules changes.
The first issue is the disproportionate amount Quarterbacks are paid today. The top 6 paid Quarterbacks in the league all make an average of over 50 million dollars per year. The 2023 NFL league salary cap is 224.8 million and each team has a 53 man roster. In other words those Quarterbacks had better be stellar, and even more importantly healthy, or what are the chances their teams will be competitive? Of the 6 highest paid Quarterbacks, currently 2 are injured (Aaron Rodgers & Joe Burrow) and 1 is having a terrible Season (Justin Herbert). Those 3 teams are a combined 14-24 through week 13.
The second issue is because NFL team owners want to have an exciting product on their field. They are unwilling to spend the necessary time required in most cases to develop a Quarterback. Essentially every Quarterback has a value clock attached to them when they are drafted into the league. The first 3 Quarterbacks drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft were Bryce Young 1rst overall, C.J. Stroud 2nd overall, and Anthony Richardson 4th overall. They are making an average of 9.5 million, 9 million, and 8.5 million per year over their 4 year Rookie contracts respectively. Compare those salaries to the highest paid Quarterbacks in the league and these guys are an absolute bargain. Realistically though how successful can they be in their first few seasons? Teams that pick that early in the draft are picking there for a reason. These are generally the worst teams in the league. Only 1 of those Quarterbacks is having a good season. C.J. Stroud (20 TD, 5 INT, 3540 YARDS) is absolutely killing it in his first season while Anthony Richardson is injured, and Bryce Young (9 TD, 9 INT, 2055 YARDS) is struggling. The Carolina Panthers with Bryce Young as their starting Quarterback are currently 1-11. They have the worst record in the league. Will they give up on Bryce Young and hope to get lucky with the next first overall pick Quarterback? Although this is a bit of an extreme hypothesis, things like that have been happening. Quarterbacks aren't being given the necessary time and support to develop.
The third issue is the massive disparity between the best teams in the league and the worst. This might not be as obvious to the average fan. Games in the NFL today are mostly blowouts. The average margin of victory this year is 12 points. That's almost two touchdowns! If I were to dive deep into the analysis I'm sure I could come up with many reasons but for this article I'll only discuss the most obvious one. There aren't enough experienced Quarterbacks leading teams in the NFL. A Quarterback needs time to master his Offensive Coordinator's offense. He needs time to then adjust to how his Receivers run their routes. He needs the experience to learn how to read opponent's defenses. In 2022 the NFL had 64 different starting Quarterbacks. Many of them were starting for the first time in the NFL. 2023 is on pace to have more! How are the struggling teams ever supposed to get in a rhythm?
SO WHAT'S THE ANSWER?
Listen to the recent episode of the Pro Sports Podcasters podcast with guest John Johnson.
It might be as simple as getting back to how it once was. It's my belief that returning to a more balanced Offense that focuses on running the ball more is the answer for the majority of struggling teams. There are a number of benefits to building a team designed to run the ball. Defensive Lines have gotten smaller. Speed is more coveted than Size in today's NFL. That's one of the reasons the Philadelphia Eagles have so much success running their Quarterback sneak. Their big O-Line just bulldoze the smaller Defensive Lines. It is getting easier to open holes for Running Backs today because Defensive Lines just aren't as big.
Having a scheme that allows you to target players in the draft that opposing teams aren't interested in is an advantage. Running Backs are falling further and further down draft boards. Run Blocking Linemen are being overlooked because every team is placing a premium on Pass Blocking. Fullbacks have become almost nonexistent. These are all potential draft steals for a Run focused Offense.
Another benefit comes in the form of affordable contracts. All of those position players come at a significant discount. Only 9 Running Backs make over $10 million dollars per year, with the highest paid being Christian McCaffrey at $16 million. I have argued that Christian McCaffrey is the best player in the NFL. Quite a bargain at $16 million. Run Blocking Offensive Linemen make half as much as Pass Blocking specialists. The highest paid Fullback in the NFL is Vonn Bell. He makes $7.5 million per year. Kyle Juszczyk makes $5.4 million in second place. You can see where this is going. Fullbacks make peanuts in comparison to most Offensive position players.
And the greatest benefit to adopting a more balanced Offense is that it provides upstart Quarterbacks with more time. More time to learn an Offense. More time to get in sync with his Receivers. More time in the pocket because Defenses have to respect the Run. Plus the understanding that a win or loss isn't all on them. It's gotten so bad that the New York Jets have offered the starting Quarterback job back to Zach Wilson (after being benched) and he doesn't want it. I have never heard of a Quarterback being resistant to starting. I can't say I blame him though. The Jets' Offense was built to allow Aaron Rodgers the freedom to throw all over the field. Ironically they have a great group of Running Backs but they are used as Receivers out of the backfield. Their Offensive Line is terrible but sufficient enough for an experienced Quarterback like Aaron Rodgers to get the ball out quick. Unfortunately Zach Wilson isn't that experienced. He knows it, and he's well aware that being the target of every upcoming Sack Specialist's highlight reel does nothing for his future value. If he even has a future at this point.
I guess the question that's left to ask is for you, the fans. Would you be satisfied watching your favourite team if they focused on the Run? You wouldn't get as many big plays. Games you win or lose would generally be a little lower scoring. Your Defense would probably be one of the better Defenses in the league because they could afford to allocate more money there. Your team would probably be a factor every season but participate in less primetime games.
Would it be worth it?
コメント