MAIN CARD ANALYSIS
Charles Oliveira 33-8 vs Islam Makhachev 22-8
Last 3 fights
Oliveira - Gaethje, Poirier, Chandler
Makhachev - Green, Hooker, Moises
The majority of MMA Analysts believe this fight will be 5 Rounds of Ground and Pound. That Islam Makhachev will do what he did in his fight against Jose Aldo and just grind out a decision. Only this time it will be easier because Charles Oliveira doesn't really bother to prevent Takedowns.
Then there are others like myself that don't believe it will be so easy. First of all every Round begins on the feet, and Oliveira has impressive striking. Secondly his knockout power comes from a willingness to throw with vicious intent. He fully commits to punches because he isn't afraid of being taken down. He's that confident in his Jujitsu and Submission ability.
That's what makes this fight so interesting. We haven't seen a Dagestani Grappler face a Brazilian Jujitsu practitioner of Charles Oliveira's ability. Even Khabib never had to face someone as skilled as Oliveira off his back. He retired just in time to avoid facing him. One of his reasons for retiring is his claim that Islam Makhachev is the heir apparent to his Lightweight crown. If Oliveira defeats Makhachev, what does that say about Khabib's legacy?
So who do I like in this fight? I am rolling (pun intended) with Oliveira. Even if Islam Makhachev is able to take him down I don't think he can finish him. I believe that Oliveira has the greatest chance of getting a finish in this fight and that's the difference.
Aljamain Sterling 21-3 vs T.J. Dillashaw 17-4
Last 3 fights
Sterling - Yan, Yan, Sandhagen
Dillashaw - Sandhagen, CEJUDO, Garbrandt
In this contest we've got the current Champion Aljamain Sterling (even though some fans still don't see him as such) vs a former Champion who makes his return to the ring after a long layoff. Both fighters have specific skills they excel at, and supplement those skills with dynamic striking.
The real question that needs to be answered is how capable is T.J. Dillashaw after such a long layoff? The last time we saw Dillashaw at his best was in 2018 when he knocked Cody Garbrandt out cold in the first Round. We only saw him for less than a minute in 2019 when Henry Cejudo sent him to the shadow realm. His fight against Cory Sandhagen in 2021 demonstrated some of the elusive movement we had come to expect from Dillashaw but he rarely looked dangerous in that fight. So is he back to his former self?
Aljamain Sterling will probably test Dillashaw's striking ability early. If he doesn't see it as a considerable threat he'll probably try for the early knockout. If he does though, and I have a feeling he will. Expect him to look for plenty of Takedowns to tire T.J. Dillashaw out, and win Rounds. Dillashaw is a Top level Division I wrestler though so it's possible Dillashaw wins that battle. This fight could look a lot like Sterling's last fight against Petr Yan, if Sterling is able to utilize his Jujitsu. Then again it's possible Dillashaw gets top position on the Ground.
I am taking Aljamain Sterling in this fight to win by decision. I just don't know if T.J. Dillashaw has the knockout capabilities anymore. Without that Aljamain will be able to close distance when he wants and control this fight.
Petr Yan 16-3 vs Sean O'Malley 15-1
Last 3 fights
Yan - STERLING, Sandhagen, STERLING
O'Malley - Munhoz NO CONTEST, Paiva, Moutinho
Sean O'Malley is a master at marketing himself. So much so that without ever defeating anyone ranked in the top 20 he finds himself matched up against the top ranked contender and former Bantamweight Champion Petr Yan. Most people would argue that Sean O'Malley isn't ready for this fight and the vegas odds reflect that. As I'm writing this article Petr Yan is a 3 to 1 favouite.
The UFC knew what they were doing when they set this fight up. Sean O'Malley is potentially a huge money maker for them so throwing him into the deep end where even a loss doesn't really hurt his development is a good idea. It's a good idea provided he doesn't look totally outclassed. That's why Petr Yan makes sense and here's why.
1- Petr Yan tends to start slow. He methodically tests and probes his opponent for weaknesses before launching an all out attack.
2- Both fighters are dedicated strikers, but Sean O'Malley has a 4 inch height advantage and a 5 inch reach advantage.
3- After a loss to Aljamain Sterling where he was out wrestled, Yan will want to keep the fight standing so O'Malley won't have to worry about takedowns.
Basically Sean O'Malley couldn't have asked for a better opponent to showcase his skills. Does that mean he will win. No it definitely doesn't, but it does mean he will have a chance. On the other hand Petr Yan needs this. He needs this win badly so there is far more pressure on him to get the win. Will that make him sloppy? I doubt it. Petr Yan is a very disciplined fighter who has an incredible Striking Defense.
That is something that gets overlooked by so many analysts. I've seen fighters throw four punch combinations at Yan and only manage to hit his arms. He is so confident in his striking defense that he invites his opponent to attack by taking a defensive posture. Then he counterattacks with devastating power once his opponent has tired themselves out. Will that happen to Sean O'Malley? Petr Yan also has brutal leg kicks. Something we've already seen O'Malley get peppered with in previous fights. Needless to say this should be a great fight for the fans.
I think the majority of fans and vegas have it right. Sean O'Malley isn't quite ready for Petr Yan. Not that he doesn't possess the necessary skills to win. Just that he probably hasn't been matched up against a fighter that can really hurt him the way Yan can. I am going with Petr Yan by decision.
Beneil Dariush 21-4-1 vs Mateusz Gamrot 21-1
Last 3 fights
Dariush - Ferguson, Ferreira, Holtzman
Gamrot - Tsarukyan, Ferreira, Stephens
Nobody respects Beneil Dariush. Seems like everyone he fights is favoured to beat him. He just keeps proving Vegas and the MMA fans wrong. Now I have historically been on his side. He has been my favourite Underdog prediction a few times. When I evaluate Beneil Dariush I see a true mixed martial artist. He is just as good on the Ground as he is on his feet. He really doesn't have any glaring weaknesses.
So why is Vegas constantly seeing him as the Underdog? The reason for it is Beneil Dariush doesn't have any outstanding strengths in his game either. He is simply an unremarkable fighter to watch. Analysts don't really know what to say when predicting his fights. Generally the Prediction has become a Decision Win or Decision Loss.
Mateusz Gamrot is definitely coming into this fight with far more hype. He has received fight bonuses in almost every fight inside the Octagon. He is a dominant wrestler but has knockout power, although his preferred method of victory is by Submission. Gamrot is always looking to finish but against top competition he doesn't appear to have refined his skills well enough to do so. His fight against Armen Tsarukyan was a grind. Realizing that he was outclassed standing, he used his wrestling to earn a decision victory in the Main Event. I actually thought Tsarukyan did enough to get the win but that's because I don't score ground control time as high as others. Tsarukyan is strong and kept Gamrot working without taking much damage.
Beneil Dariush is definitely a better Grappler than Tsarukyan. Gamrot may not have as easy a time scoring Takedowns against him. But unlike the Tsarukyan fight, Gamrot could find more success on his feet against Dariush who isn't nearly as dangerous a Striker as Tsarukyan. This is a very difficult fight to call because Dariush has proven he knows how to win, and is the more complete fighter. Can he deal with Gamrot's high level wrestling though? That is what this fight will come down to.
I think Dariush will do what he does and find a way to win. I also believe he will come into this fight ready to contest every Takedown, and sweep Gamrot when necessary. Don't be surprised if he comes away with a very impressive victory.
Katlyn Chookagian 18-4 vs Manon Fiorot 9-1
Last 3 fights
Chookagian - Ribas, Maia, Araujo
Fiorot - Maia, Bueno Silva, Ricci
Katlyn Chookagian would have been a Champion if she didn't fight in the Valentina Shevchenko era. She has beaten the absolute best in the Division, but got absolutely destroyed by Shevchenko. Now she finds herself as the final fighter to beat in order to earn a title shot against The Bullet.
Not a bad place to be, but a disappointing one if your goal is to someday fight for the belt again. What makes her situation so difficult is that in order to earn another shot she would have to completely dominate her opponents. These are opponents that have had to prove themselves as potential title challengers in order to earn a fight against Chookagian in the first place. So good luck dominating them.
Manon Fiorot has rapidly ascended the Flyweight rankings. In a division without many interesting options to challenge Valentina Shevchenko. You can bet that Dana White is betting on a Fiorot win. Stylistically this is an exciting fight on paper. Both women are skilled strikers. Fiorot would appear to have the speed and power advantage but only slightly.
I expect to see Katlyn Chookagian use her crisp jab to attempt to keep this fight at a distance. She is a master of slowing down fights and scoring enough with her strikes to win a decision. I just don't think that she will succeed in keeping Fiorot at a distance. Fiorot is an aggressive Striker that throws combinations effortlessly.
So I believe that Dana White will get the victory he wants. I expect Manon Fiorot to be the faster, stronger, and more aggressive fighter. If Katlyn Chookagian's footwork slows down even a little bit she could get finished.
UFC 280 BEST BETS
Charles Oliveira to Win +155
Aljamain Sterling by Submission or Decision -125
Sterling vs Dillashaw to go the Distance -180
Petr Yan to Win -265
Yan vs O'Malley to go the Distance -175
Beneil Dariush to Win +155
Dariush vs Gamrot to go the Distance -175
Manon Fiorot to Win -200
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