Week 8 - Early NFL Picks
Welcome back! This is another advanced look at betting markets across football and other sports, with help from our sponsor, Sports Interaction. There's two reasons why I am doing this. Firstly, so that readers like you have time to fade or follow these picks. However, the second and more important reason is due to the fact that the best value on betting odds is usually just after lines have been released. As time gets closer to the kick/tip/face off, more money from the general public comes in and bookmakers adjust accordingly. As always, if you choose to gamble, make sure that you gamble responsibly.
Before we get into Week 8, let's recap how I did with my Week 7 offerings:
Las Vegas Raiders - Team Total over 26.5 points @ $1.85 (-118) Won
Eagles v Raiders - Game Total over 49.5 points @ $1.91 (-110) Won
Los Angeles Rams - Half Time/ Full Time Double @ $1.53 (-189) Won
LA Rams - 1st Half Spread -9.5 @ $1.91 (-110) Lost
Green Bay Packers - Team Total over 28.5 pts (v Washington) @ $1.85 (-118) Lost
Kansas City Chiefs - Team Total over 31 pts (v Tennessee) @ $1.85 (-118) Lost
New England Patriots - 1st Quarter 3-Way (vs New York Jets) @ 1.62 (-161) Won
PSP with NWB NFL Record: 4-3 (-0.09 units)
A winning set of picks, but a break even result for the bankroll. The Lions showed up early for their guy, Jared Goff and kept the first half competitive against the Rams. The Packers were restricted by Washington, but they will clear their team total in Week 8 (refer below). As for the Chiefs, there are some warning signs but they should recover to a respectable level on MNF against the Giants.
Now, without any further ado, let's get to several picks for Week 8! Odds are from our friends at Sports Interaction. Sign up for an account and get 100% of you deposit in free bets. Follow the link/banner below.
Green Bay Packers - Team Total Over 22.5 (@ Arizona Cardinals) @ $1.85 (-118)
Davante Adams and Allen Lazard will both miss this game after being placed on the Covid Reserve list. Despite this, Aaron Rodgers is the reigning MVP and he will still have Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan and Randall Cobb to throw to. Also, the Cardinals secondary is the weakest part of their defense. Rodgers will identify and single out mismatches. Unlike Patrick Mahomes last week, Rodgers has a more superior offensive line to protect him too. This line is just plain disrespectful. It was at 28.5 before Adams was ruled out and now it has been shaved, as if Adams was calling the plays and tossing the Hail Mary passes. Anyway, when considering that the Packers defense could provide a touchdown by themselves, we need to take advantage, before the number moves back up.
Cincinnati Bengals v New York Jets - Game Total Over 43.5 pts @ $1.91 (-110)
Aside from a loss to the Bears in Week 2 (17-20), games involving the Bengals have gone over this number every time this season. Further, the Jets secondary (and linebackers) are banged up, making it a challenge for them to stop the collegiate turned pro connection between quarterback Joe Burrow and Offensive Rookie of The Year in waiting, JaMarr Chase. They will put up points early (important for the next play) before turning the ball over to Joe Mixon and the running backs - which sounds like a band name. Anyway, even if the Jets mop up in garbage time, this total is attainable and should be attacked by bettors like us.
Bengals- First Quarter 3-Way Result (v NYJ) @ $1.75 (-133)
The Patriots helped to cash this line in Week 6, so let's keep riding the trend until the Jets come correct to start a game. Joe Flacco is now their QB, which is an upgrade in my humble opinion, but Jessie Bates and the Bengals defense should be able to restrict him AND stay in front for the opening frame.
Philadelphia Eagles - First Half Moneyline (v Detroit) @ $1.61 (-164)
Speaking of trends, the Lions still lost their first half against the Rams, despite covering the spread. With that in mind, I am going back to the well here, looking for the Philadelphia Eagles to start faster and have the advantage, as the teams go into the sheds for a break. I know that Jalen Hurts often has a bad quarter or two, but I'm banking on the Dirty Birds to hold up for the first half.
Los Angeles Rams - 1st Half Result/2nd Half Result (@ Houston Texans) @ $1.65 (-154)
Good things come in threes and so do the trends that I'm continuing to ride. Sean McVay remains undefeated as head coach, when the Rams lead at halftime, so let's lean into that and stay on the wave. This team wants to be in the Super Bowl conversation and they won't be taking any drives off as part of that. Rams will win the first half and then close it out in the 2nd for a win against the wilting Texans.
Texans - Point Spread +14.5 (v Rams) @ $1.91 (-110)
Despite the expected beatdown against the Rams, I anticipate the return of Tyrod Taylor as the starting QB, just in time for the trade deadline. However, if Davis Mills starts, I'm not interested in this spread. With the Rams linebacking corps depleted already, I expected Taylor to tuck and run to extend drives. Further, I believe that he can keep the final margin within two scores, whether the Texans are competitive or whether he does it through garbage time.
New Orleans Saints - Point Spread +5 (v Tampa Bay Buccaneers) @ $1.95 (-105)
Drew Brees and Michael Thomas won't be around this time, but this is still a divisional match up. Plus this is one of the few home games at the Superdome that the Saints have had so far this season. Further, and most tellingly, this will be the first start for Jameis Winston against the Buccaneers. REVENGE NARRATIVE! The Saints are also a team that has a chip on their shoulder from playoffs losses and given that the Bucs ended their season last season, I expect them to come back strong and keep it closer than many will think on Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Point Spread +3.5 (@ Cleveland Browns) @ $1.95 (-105)
Playoff beatdowns remind me of the epic first quarter in Wild Card Round where the Browns, sans Head Coach Kevin Stefanski, ran the ball down the Steelers gullet and ended the game as a contest early. This game also exposed the decline of Ben Roethlisberger as a top tier quarterback. Nevertheless, the Steelers are coming off a bye and will have revenge on their minds. T.J. Watt will chase Case Keenum and make his day a sweaty one. I expect both teams to run the ball in a close game. The Steelers may well win this outright, but I expect them to cover the spread, as a minimum.
Dallas Cowboys - Team Total Over 29 pts (@ Minnesota Vikings) @ $1.85 (-118)
This play and the next one make for a great combination, because one doesn't really happen without the other.
Like the Raiders of Nevada, the 'Boys operate with a high octane offense. Scoring points is their best form of defense, though they have key individual weapons, such as Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs, to restrict their opposition. Dak Prescott is in MVP form and will look to score two or three touchdowns, while also handing off to Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Cowboys may need a field goal to win it at the end, but I can see them getting 30+ points here.
Cowboys v Vikings - Game Total Over 54.5 pts @ $1.91 (-110)
The Vikings are no slouches either, with a determined Kirk Cousins keeping them in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Vikings will have to score to keep up and they may have to abandon their preferred run first strategy. Nevertheless, Sunday Night Football promises to be an exciting match up this time around and a potential preview for Wild Card Weekend in January.
So there we have it, an early look at some picks for Week 8. If you want to parlay, make sure you capture each leg as a single separate bet. Otherwise, place your bets, enjoy the matches and come back here for more tips as we go along this season. If you have any questions, feel free to hit us up on social media.
Nii Wallace-Bruce
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