Week 7 - Early NFL Picks
First of all, thank you for visiting. You could have been anywhere on the Internet, but you're here with us... we appreciate you. Your reward for joining us is an early look at the Week 7 slate in the National Football League. This will be the first of many advanced looks at betting markets across football and other sports, with help from our sponsor, Sports Interaction. There's two reasons why I am doing this. Firstly, so that readers like you have time to fade or follow these picks. However, the second and more important reason is due to the fact that the best value on betting odds is usually just after lines have been released. As time gets closer to the kick/tip/face off, more money from the general public comes in and bookmakers adjust accordingly.
I'll give you some explanation as to why I like a play, just know that I'll be playing these myself too! Unless otherwise advised, each play will be treated as an individual bet - sometimes I will put together a parlay or round robin play. My objective through this is to share what I have learned from betting and also share my knowledge. Gambling is based on risk, so be sure to only ever gamble within your limits. If you're having a bad day of losses, take some time out. Also, if you're not having fun, just stop playing for while.
Now, without any further ado, let's get to several picks for Week 7! Odds are from our friends at Sports Interaction. Sign up for an account and get 100% of you deposit in free bets. Follow the link/banner below.
Atlanta Falcons v Miami Dolphins - Game Total over 47.5 pts @ $1.91 (-110)
This is a match up of two bad defenses. There's not much more to it. The ball will be flying around as the Falcons and Fins pass the ball, in a scrap for the win. It also helps that Matt Ryan is coming off a bye and gets his primary receiver back, in Calvin Ridley. On the Dolphins side, Tua Tagavailoa will essentially be playing for his job, as rumours of a trade with Houston (and possibly Washington) refuse to go away. This will be a fun match for fantasy and, if you take the over on the total, a fun match for your bankroll.
Philadelphia Eagles - Team with Most Punts (v Las Vegas) @ $2.05 (+105)
As you read more of these, you'll learn that this is my favourite prop of them all. It's simple, a touch obscure, yet easy to exploit. Philadelphia had to punt often against the Buccaneers in Week 6 and I expect them to do the same again against a resurgent Las Vegas team, sans Gruden. The Eagles offensive line is suspect at best but the key variable here is the relatively inexperienced Eagles' quarterback in Jalen Hurts, in comparison to Derek Carr. The Raiders defensive line, featuring Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue, will get to Hurts and Miles Sanders often, resulting in tackles for loss and less third down conversions. Further, Carr and the Raiders have more deep passing options (Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs) to get out of 3rd and long situations, as required.
Las Vegas Raiders - Team Total over 26.5 points @ $1.85 (-118)
In the same match up, the Raiders will put up points - it's just what they do. Like the Cowboys, the best form of defense for Las Vegas is to score more points. In order to win games, they have typically scored at least 30 points and I see no reason why this won't continue against a mediocre defense, in the Eagles. The Gruden Gone Era will continue with points flowing on offense.
Eagles v Raiders - Game Total over 49.5 points @ $1.91 (-110)
With the Raiders putting up points, it makes sense that the Eagles do the same, in order to keep pace. Name one member of the Raiders cornerbacks for 2021.... that's right, you can't. While safety Trevon Moehrig is the future as their center field defender, the Raiders can be had on the outside and the Eagles should be able to get points, when Hurts can string together a set of gains. The half century will be reached in this match up.
Los Angeles Rams - Half Time/ Full Time Double @ $1.53 (-189)
If you've watched RedZone or any game involving the Rams, you will be aware of the stat that comes up whenever the Rams are in front at half time. "Sean McVay is X - 0 when the Rams are leading at half time" or something to that effect. Well, the zero is seemingly fixed while the other number continues to rise. We may never know what young Sean does at the break but instead of rolling your eyes at half time, lean into the trend and put some coin on it.... and keep doing it. You're welcome.
LA Rams - 1st Half Spread -9.5 @ $1.91 (-110)
My buddy, Jack Cavangh, gave me this nugget on the Lions for 2021. They have been held scoreless in three out of their six first halves. Read that again. Jared Goff was exposed in the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots, as a Ram, and his bad habits and inefficiencies have followed him to the Motor City. Sputtering, if you will. Anyway, ride this low number once again and keep doing so, while Goff is at the wheel of this offense.
Green Bay Packers - Team Total over 28.5 pts (v Washington) @ $1.85 (-118)
This is too low. Aaron Rodgers and friends scoring less than 30 against a Washington secondary that has more holes in it than an argument at Congress. Whether it's Aaron Jones on the ground, A-Rod with his arm, or even Kenny Clark on defense, the Pack will get points on this wilting team. Remember, they picked off Patty Mahomes and still couldn't keep him and his crew out of the endzone on multiple occasions. How are they going to restrict the reigning MVP, who will be targetting CB Benjamin St. Juste early and often, throwing to his old mate, Davante Adams.
Kansas City Chiefs - Team Total over 31 pts (v Tennessee) @ $1.85 (-118)
Patrick Mahomes had a bad day last week, but the Chiefs still put up 30+ points on the same Football Teamers. Further, the Bills racked up 31 on the Titans on Monday Night Football in the same weekend. In that match up, the Titans lost CB, Caleb Farley, along with the already injured Kristian Fulton. While Janoris Jenkins is leading the secondary, Elijah Molden is going to be in for a world of hurt as Mahomes will throw at Molden whenever possible. Great for IDP fantasy, offensive fantasy and, your bankroll.
New England Patriots - 1st Quarter 3-Way (vs New York Jets) @ 1.62 (-161)
Staying with sputtering offenses, the Jets have been slow to take off in matches. I love Robert Saleh, but the Jets haven't won a first quarter yet in 2021. Also, Bill Belichick is going to deal with Zach Wilson, a rookie quarterback. WIlson got squashed by the Pats earlier in the season and Hoodie Bill has a point to prove against Gang Green. The Pats will restrict the Jets early and should be able to score the sufficient points to win the opening frame of this divisional match up.
So there we have it, an early look at some picks for Week 7. If you want to parlay, make sure you capture each leg as a single separate bet. Otherwise, place your bets, enjoy the matches and come back here for more tips as we go along this season. If you have any questions, feel free to hit us up on social media.
Nii Wallace-Bruce
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